La Liga Tips: Back spirited Atletico to end Real Madrid’s unbeaten streak

In-form Griezmann can inspire Atletico to memorable win

The new season in La Liga is moving swiftly on, and Jamie Kemp returns to preview three fixtures across MD8, including Sunday night’s crucial Madrid derby…

Erling Haaland has been in sensational form this season, scoring an incredible 10 goals in his first five Premier League games. The Norwegian striker has also registered 19 shots on target in that period.

Newcastle have conceded the third highest amount of shots on target this season (29 in five league games) so it seems inevitable that Haaland – who has had at least two shots on target in each of his last five games – will get some shots away on Saturday.

If you fancy the Man City striker to register at least two shots on target at St James’ Park then you can back him at the super-boosted price of 1/1, from 1/2, to do so. Just click on the odds in the below banner to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.

Real Sociedad find themselves in one of the toughest periods of the Imanol Alguacil era at present. Granted, he’s set the bar very high throughout his years in San Sebastian, but their season is really straining to get off the ground here. They’ve only won one of their last eight games in La Liga (D2 L5), and come into this one after playing in the Europa League in midweek.

While they go about assimilating new players and having to change the way they play to an extent (owing to some key departures), Real Sociedad’s struggles in front of goal are really at a notable low for the Alguacil era. La Real have failed to score in each of their last four matches in La Liga, and even extending back into last season they’ve only netted more than one goal in one of their previous 11 league fixtures (2-0 v Real Betis in May).

In this clash against Valencia, what we have are two teams built on the foundations of a reliable defence. Whether they execute well or poorly, the idea is always to go after points from the starting point of a strong defensive base.

Not to mention, this game pits together two of the top goalkeepers in La Liga, in the form of Alex Remiro and Giorgi Mamardashvili. While Remiro has the most clean sheets (18) since the start of last season, Mamardashvili has been the best shot-stopper in that time based on xG of shots on target faced (+11.6 goals prevented).

Along with Real Sociedad’s goal drought, Valencia have the second-lowest xG (1.15 in three games) away from home in La Liga so far this season. All signs point towards this being a struggle on the attacking end, and so I’ll pair under 2.5 goals along with Takefusa Kubo to be fouled 3+ times.

When Real Sociedad lack ideas, they turn to their Japanese winger for inspiration. He never shies away from taking initiative and trying to make things happen, and has been fouled 16 times in 458 minutes in La Liga this term (3.1 per 90).

Barcelona’s perfect start remains intact in La Liga, following a 1-0 win over Getafe in midweek. It wasn’t quite as dominant as we’ve come to expect from them so far, but as Hansi Flick said himself, you get three points per win no matter how much you win by. Besides, what the German coach is doing in difficult circumstances is nothing short of outstanding.

As good as his team have been, there’s a certain feeling of unsustainability lurking in the background, through no fault of his own. Flick is working with a stretched squad at the moment, and playing well with a young group and in spite of numerous absences is not the same as playing well and continuing to gap Real Madrid in the title race at the same time. Though they look similar in the table, Flick’s working environment is not the same as Carlo Ancelotti’s.

If you’re looking for a fixture when Barcelona might suffer their first hiccup, then away to Osasuna at El Sadar looks a worthy candidate. Vicente Moreno’s side haven’t particularly wowed with the quality of their football so far, but when they play on their home patch there’s an effectiveness to their approach that is producing results. Osasuna are more ambitious, more aggressive, and more able to channel their directness when they play there.

Despite that, I won’t fully lean in to dropped points for Barcelona here. Flick’s side may be stretched, and they won’t keep winning forever, but there’s a positivity surrounding them that dissuades me from backing an Osasuna result (maybe you’ll be braver).

Instead, I’ll go with Raphinha to score anytime in this one. The Brazilian has racked up 27 shots in eight games across all competitions this season, and really should have got himself on the scoresheet against Getafe in midweek. Between his defence-splitting runs and shots from range, he should be a likely route to goal for Barcelona in this one.

Real Madrid haven’t lost any of their last 38 games in La Liga. Whichever way you want to frame it, whether it’s a whole calendar year unbeaten or a full season’s worth of league matches without defeat, the record needs little dressing up. Carlo Ancelotti’s side might look vulnerable at times in Europe, but in La Liga it’s hard for anyone to provide more than a scare.

As for the last team to actually beat them in league competition, you might have a feeling where I’m going with this.

Yes, this precise fixture last season saw Real Madrid beaten by three goals to one, marking the beginning of what would turn out to be an incredible run of performance. Carlo Ancelotti’s side were shown to be vulnerable from crosses in that game, and with the 4-4-2 diamond system they were using at the time, it would serve to jolt them into strategic and systemic changes that would eventually result in a La Liga and Champions League double.

Can Atletico beat them again?

Even without factoring in how strong this particular version of Simeone’s side might be, the fact is that Real Madrid have had a hard time when travelling to face them away from home. They’ve only won two of their last nine away to Atletico across all competitions (D3 L4), and lost both of their games there last season (1-3 in La Liga and 2-4 in the Copa del Rey). Atletico don’t have to be vintage to win this fixture – we’ve seen it before.

Of course, the big team news here is that Kylian Mbappe will be absent. That means Real Madrid’s grand and on-going experiment of how to get the best of Mbappe while retaining balance will be shelved, and a change of tack will have to occur. On the other side, I expect the Frenchman’s absence to embolden Atletico’s approach, with less fear of what Real Madrid’s speed might be able to achieve behind their defence.

In their two ‘big’ nights at the Metropolitano this season, Atletico have beaten Girona 3-0 and Leipzig 2-1 in the Champions League. Particularly in the latter, where the sense of occasion was ripe and the atmosphere was electric, we saw Simeone’s side dominate with their intensity and renewed athleticism while backed by the soundtrack of their faithful.

If they can replicate similar on Sunday, I think they’ve got a good chance of snapping Real Madrid’s streak of invincibility. I’ll take them at 9/5 to win.